Analytics & Forecasting
Not a prediction — a statement of what continues if no one intervenes.
The package is the canonical measure from Scenario Lab: duty suspended across all 14 watchlist lines for 90 days, costing $18.4M. It relieves prices and costs revenue and cover — it is not uniformly better.
Projected customs & excise revenue
Weekly run-rate, dollars. With the package this path runs below baseline — the suspension's revenue cost is real and lands immediately.
Straight-line projection · derived from the active climate Tue 4 Aug 2026 · 06:00 Today's value and the previous timeline point set a per-week delta, extended linearly across 8 weeks. Single axis by design — never a dual axis.
Projected headline CPI
Percent, year on year. With the package this path runs below baseline from week 5 — the only one of the three where the package improves the outcome.
Straight-line projection · derived from the active climate Tue 4 Aug 2026 · 06:00 Today's value and the previous timeline point set a per-week delta, extended linearly across 8 weeks. Single axis by design — never a dual axis.
Projected import cover
Months of cover. With the package this path runs below baseline — forgone duty is paid out of the same external position that funds imports.
Straight-line projection · derived from the active climate Tue 4 Aug 2026 · 06:00 Today's value and the previous timeline point set a per-week delta, extended linearly across 8 weeks. Single axis by design — never a dual axis.
Scenario comparison — customs & excise revenue
All four climates, each taken at its own default phase and extended by the same straight-line mechanism. Every path is indexed to 100 at its own today: that is what makes four differently-scaled paths comparable on a single axis — the shapes are the comparison, not the levels.
Scenario comparison · index, own today = 100 Tue 4 Aug 2026 · 06:00 Each climate derived at its default phase with the intensity currently set in the top bar (mid), then indexed to 100 and extended 8 weeks.
What would have to be true
Every path above rests on three assumptions. Stating them is the difference between a projection and a promise.
- 1
Freight normalises back toward index 100 rather than staying elevated. It currently reads 100; every week it stays above trend adds landed cost the baseline path does not carry.
- 2
No further disruption at Nassau Container Port or the Family-Island gateways. A single berth closure resets the backlog and invalidates the clearance and cover paths together.
- 3
Import partner routing is unchanged — no shift away from the current 81.4% US-sourced share. A re-route lengthens lead times and changes both the duty mix and the pass-through lag.