Revenue & Collections
Customs duty, VAT at the border and excise against forecast — where the money came from, where it is at risk, and what the headline figure hides.
Border receipts stand at $1.20B FY-to-date — $605M customs duty, $486M VAT at the border and $107M excise — running on the $99.8M-a-month pace the forecast assumes, so monthly variance sits within noise of zero. Duty collected this week is $18.7M and revenue at risk is $4.2M across 96 flagged declarations. Nassau and Freeport together account for 87.6% of everything collected.
Trend arrows show change vs previous timeline point. Variance is measured against the steady-state collection pace of $99.8M a month, not the annual target.
Actual against forecast
Border receipts by month of the fiscal year — all three streams combined — on one shared dollar axis.
Customs revenue ledger · Ministry of Economy & Finance forecast model 4 Aug 2026 · 06:00 Monthly receipts across customs duty, VAT at the border and excise, compared against the steady-state collection pace for the same month.
Collections by gateway
Customs duty and VAT at the border, FY-to-date, apportioned by each gateway's share of import value. Every row opens the gateway.
| Island | Duty | VAT | Total | Share of collections |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Providence | $413M | $331M | $744M | 68.2% |
| Grand Bahama | $117M | $94.3M | $212M | 19.4% |
| Abaco | $24.8M | $19.9M | $44.7M | 4.1% |
| Eleuthera | $15.7M | $12.6M | $28.4M | 2.6% |
| Exuma | $13.3M | $10.7M | $24.0M | 2.2% |
| Andros | $10.3M | $8.3M | $18.5M | 1.7% |
| Long Island | $6.0M | $4.9M | $10.9M | 1.0% |
| Bimini | $4.8M | $3.9M | $8.7M | 0.8% |
| All gateways | $605M | $486M | $1.09B | 100.0% |
Customs revenue ledger · Gateway import-value shares 4 Aug 2026 · 06:00 FY-to-date duty and VAT apportioned across gateways in proportion to each gateway's share of national import value; excise is collected centrally and excluded here.
Arrears and exposure
Assessments not yet settled, appeals under review, and how the revenue at risk ages.
- Open assessments
- 8 declarations held or in inspection
- Appeals under review
- 3 declarations
- Revenue at risk
- $4.2MWithin tolerance
- Reading
- Revenue at risk is assessed duty and VAT on declarations the selectivity engine has flagged and an officer has endorsed. It is exposure, not a loss — the audit trail records every case that closes either way.
| Ageing bucket | Exposure | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 0–30 days | $1,890,000 | 45% |
| 31–60 days | $1,260,000 | 30% |
| 61–90 days | $630,000 | 15% |
| 90+ days | $420,000 | 10% |
The ageing profile is structural — the shape holds while the total moves with the climate. Anything past 90 days is referred for recovery action.
Customs declaration system · Enforcement case register 4 Aug 2026 · 13:15 Open assessments and appeals counted from declaration status; exposure aged from the date of assessment.