IN SCOPEGDP$15.10BCPI YoY3.1%External reserves$3.12BImport cover6.1 moFiscal balance−1.8%
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Minister of EconomyScope: National totals & exceptionsAuthority: Unlimited (policy measures, statements)Executive altitude: exceptions, decisions and aggregates. Individual trader records are de-identified for this role — operational granularity sits with the Comptroller.
Economic climate
Baseline conditions. Feeds nominal, no active shock applied.
Intensity
Effects spread across streams; buffers draw down.
TimelineCurrent · point 3 of 4

Revenue & Collections

Customs duty, VAT at the border and excise against forecast — where the money came from, where it is at risk, and what the headline figure hides.

SituationMinister of Economy · Steady State

Border receipts stand at $1.20B FY-to-date — $605M customs duty, $486M VAT at the border and $107M excise — running on the $99.8M-a-month pace the forecast assumes, so monthly variance sits within noise of zero. Duty collected this week is $18.7M and revenue at risk is $4.2M across 96 flagged declarations. Nassau and Freeport together account for 87.6% of everything collected.

Trend arrows show change vs previous timeline point. Variance is measured against the steady-state collection pace of $99.8M a month, not the annual target.

Actual against forecast

Border receipts by month of the fiscal year — all three streams combined — on one shared dollar axis.

Variance against forecast, by month
Above forecast in blue, below forecast in red, with the zero line drawn as a grey reference.

Customs revenue ledger · Ministry of Economy & Finance forecast model 4 Aug 2026 · 06:00 Monthly receipts across customs duty, VAT at the border and excise, compared against the steady-state collection pace for the same month.

Collections by gateway

Customs duty and VAT at the border, FY-to-date, apportioned by each gateway's share of import value. Every row opens the gateway.

IslandDutyVATTotalShare of collections
New Providence$413M$331M$744M
68.2%
Grand Bahama$117M$94.3M$212M
19.4%
Abaco$24.8M$19.9M$44.7M
4.1%
Eleuthera$15.7M$12.6M$28.4M
2.6%
Exuma$13.3M$10.7M$24.0M
2.2%
Andros$10.3M$8.3M$18.5M
1.7%
Long Island$6.0M$4.9M$10.9M
1.0%
Bimini$4.8M$3.9M$8.7M
0.8%
All gateways$605M$486M$1.09B100.0%

Customs revenue ledger · Gateway import-value shares 4 Aug 2026 · 06:00 FY-to-date duty and VAT apportioned across gateways in proportion to each gateway's share of national import value; excise is collected centrally and excluded here.

Arrears and exposure

Assessments not yet settled, appeals under review, and how the revenue at risk ages.

Open assessments
8 declarations held or in inspection
Appeals under review
3 declarations
Revenue at risk
$4.2MWithin tolerance
Reading
Revenue at risk is assessed duty and VAT on declarations the selectivity engine has flagged and an officer has endorsed. It is exposure, not a loss — the audit trail records every case that closes either way.
Ageing bucketExposureShare
0–30 days$1,890,000
45%
31–60 days$1,260,000
30%
61–90 days$630,000
15%
90+ days$420,000
10%

The ageing profile is structural — the shape holds while the total moves with the climate. Anything past 90 days is referred for recovery action.

Customs declaration system · Enforcement case register 4 Aug 2026 · 13:15 Open assessments and appeals counted from declaration status; exposure aged from the date of assessment.

SOVEREIGN IN-COUNTRY HOSTING · IMMUTABLE AUDIT LOG · EXPLAINABLE BY DESIGNHELM v1.0 · CLASSIFICATION: OFFICIAL · SIMULATED DATA FOR DEMONSTRATION