IN SCOPEGDP$15.10BCPI YoY3.1%External reserves$3.12BImport cover6.1 moFiscal balance−1.8%
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Minister of EconomyScope: National totals & exceptionsAuthority: Unlimited (policy measures, statements)Executive altitude: exceptions, decisions and aggregates. Individual trader records are de-identified for this role — operational granularity sits with the Comptroller.
Economic climate
Baseline conditions. Feeds nominal, no active shock applied.
Intensity
Effects spread across streams; buffers draw down.
TimelineCurrent · point 3 of 4

Tourism & Services

Services are the economy. A $4.90B services surplus is what funds an $4.15B goods deficit and 89% import dependence — so external demand for Bahamian services is the first mover in almost every economic climate on this system.

SituationMinister of Economy · Steady State

9.40M arrivals over the trailing 12 months — 7.90M cruise and 1.50M stopover — supporting $6.10B of visitor spend and a 71.4% hotel occupancy rate. Services run a $4.90B surplus against a $4.15B goods deficit: the services account is what funds the import bill. Cruise carries 84% of arrivals but stopover carries the spend, at roughly 35 times the per-visitor figure.

Arrivals over time

Cruise and stopover arrivals by month of the fiscal year, both on one shared count axis. Cruise dominates the volume; stopover dominates the spend.

Cruise carries 84.0% of arrivals at $102 of spend per visitor. Stopover carries 16.0% of arrivals at $3,530 per visitor. The latest month on the chart closed at 582,675 cruise and 136,981 stopover arrivals.

Ministry of Tourism arrivals register · cruise manifests 28 Jul 2026 · 12:00 Immigration cards for stopover arrivals and vessel manifests for cruise arrivals, monthly, counted once per call.

Spend per visitor

Arrivals and revenue are not the same story. This is the single most misread pair of numbers in the tourism account.

Cruise · per visitor
$102

7,900,000 arrivals · 13.2% of total spend

Stopover · per visitor
$3,530

1,500,000 arrivals · 86.8% of total spend

A stopover visitor is worth 34.6× a cruise visitor — $3,530 against $102. That is why 16.0% of arrivals produce 86.8% of the spend. An arrivals record is not a revenue record.

Central Bank of The Bahamas · balance of payments compilation 31 Jul 2026 · 11:00 Travel credits split between cruise and stopover using the visitor expenditure survey, divided by arrivals on the same basis.

Hotel occupancy

Twelve months of national hotel occupancy on one axis, with the current reading called out.

71.4%current national occupancy · 71.4% at trend

Ministry of Tourism property returns · monthly occupancy survey 28 Jul 2026 · 12:00 Rooms sold over rooms available across reporting properties, weighted by room count.

Island contribution

Arrivals, spend and occupancy across the eight islands and gateways. Click a row for the island's detail.

IslandArrivals 12mShare of arrivalsVisitor spendShare of spendOccupancyStanding
New Providence5,828,00062.0%$3.70B60.7%76.0%healthy
Grand Bahama1,363,00014.5%$730M12.0%65.2%healthy
Abaco582,8006.2%$487M8.0%73.2%healthy
Eleuthera479,4005.1%$382M6.3%70.0%healthy
Exuma451,2004.8%$396M6.5%74.5%healthy
Andros225,6002.4%$157M2.6%60.2%soft
Long Island131,6001.4%$86.9M1.4%61.8%soft
Bimini338,4003.6%$156M2.6%63.0%soft

Ministry of Tourism arrivals register · property occupancy returns 28 Jul 2026 · 12:00 Arrivals allocated by port of entry; spend allocated by stopover intensity, which is why spend share and arrivals share differ island by island.

Seasonality

Monthly arrivals profile across the fiscal year, indexed so the annual average is 100 — the peak and trough are the planning constraint on berths, rooms and airlift.

The peak is Mar 26 at 124 against the trough in Sep 25 at 78 — a 1.59× swing between the busiest and quietest month.

Ministry of Tourism arrivals register · five-year seasonal profile 28 Jul 2026 · 12:00 Monthly arrivals as an index of the twelve-month average, smoothed over the last five fiscal years.

SOVEREIGN IN-COUNTRY HOSTING · IMMUTABLE AUDIT LOG · EXPLAINABLE BY DESIGNHELM v1.0 · CLASSIFICATION: OFFICIAL · SIMULATED DATA FOR DEMONSTRATION